According to head “Rosnano” in the absence of structural reforms in the economy, Russia will increasingly lag behind the developed countries, which will lead to the fall of its role in the world
The most important task of the Russian authorities should be to increase the growth rate of the economy, said the head “RUSNANO” Anatoly Chubais. According to one of the leaders of the economic reforms of 1990-ies, the country needs a “quantum leap”, in which growth should accelerate from 1.5% to 4% per year, but without deep structural reforms to make such a leap would be impossible.
The persistence of growth at the level of 1-1,5% (or 2% “if lucky”), warns Chubais, will lead to a widening gap between Russia and developed countries of the world. And this can have severe consequences, including the reduced role of Russia in the world and a new drop in the standard of living of its citizens, Chubais said in an interview with Republic.
“A third consequence even more difficult. This concerns those sectors of the economy that are centrally funded from the state budget. Let’s start with the defense and finish with education. Low growth of Russian GDP imply inevitable strategic weakening of the Russian armed forces and the deteriorating quality of education in comparison with other countries”, – said Chubais.
In December 2016, addressing with the annual message to the Federal Assembly, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that the Russian government cannot allow the country’s economy, “hover near the zero mark”.
“If we do not solve the basic problems of the Russian economy, not start in full force new growth factors, years can hover near the zero mark, and therefore, we will always have to take a haircut, to save, to delay or postpone their development. This we can not afford,” – said the head of state.
In the same message, Putin instructed the government to adopt the measures necessary in order to have to 2019-2020 years Russia could “get on the pace of economic growth above the world”.
In January 2017, first Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov said that the government is preparing measures to accelerate the growth of the country’s GDP in the future to move from 2 percent growth to a more “acceptable numbers”.
However, in early April the Ministry of economic development has published an updated forecast of development of the economy, in the baseline scenario, which incorporates growth in the 2018-2020 year 1.5% per year.
The new forecast, the MAYOR questioned the possibility of Putin accomplish tasks – in the absence of structural reforms (this option incorporated in the baseline scenario) growth rates of the Russian economy in 2020 will be about twice as below average.