The former Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank Sergey Aleksashenko has predicted the devaluation of the ruble in the near future by 10-15%. We will remind that now the dollar is going to rise and fluctuates around the level of 65 rubles.
According to him, the depreciation of the national currency will be associated with several factors.
First, says the economist in a research report Nota Bene, which cites Slon.ru you need to take into account the seasonal factor: at the turn of summer and autumn, the Russian currency is traditionally cheaper.
Secondly, we must not forget the words of the President, attend to too strong strengthening of the ruble, which can negatively affect the policy of import substitution and export.
Finally, says Aleksashenko, the Central Bank is unlikely to artificially support the exchange rate, throwing to the market currency, so the rapid weakening of the ruble is “very likely”.
Read the opinions of Aleksashenko about the impotent Central Bank.
It is – if the rate falls to 15-20% – will lead to a sharp rise in inflation, although the government and the Central Bank intend to achieve it increased to 6%. If the depreciation will be more soft, in the budget there is severe deficiency (less than rubles, proceeds from oil and gas revenues).
Thus, the economic power of the Russian Federation, according to him, now facing a dangerous intersection, both of which involve the depreciation of the national currency.