The crisis on the labour market in Russia is not over, say economists Ranepa: employees will not be fired, but they still are idle or working part time. The crisis is observed in incomes of the population
By the end of 2016, the crisis has not ended neither the labour market nor the incomes of the population. This is stated in the monthly monitoring of the Institute for social analysis and prediction Ranepa, received by RBC.
Although the level of employment increases (by 0.3 percentage points in January), this does not mean that the market is everything, — domestic companies traditionally react to the crisis with cuts, the study said. In the country fourth year in a row the proportion of employees who went on leave without pay, were simple or worked part-time at the initiative of the employer. At year-end there were 10.7%, and in just four years the share of such employees increased by 1.4 p. p. At the same time, the coefficient of employment (ratio of employed workers to the average number of employees) for the year increased, and the retirement rate decreases. However, large and medium-sized enterprises continues to be the outflow of workers — it amounted to 1.4% of all employed in this sector.
“The situation in the labor market is stable. We unemployment did it,” announced on the Russian investment forum in Sochi, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev. According to official statistics, unemployment remains at consistently low levels of 5.6% in January, 0.2 percentage points lower than a year earlier. The next five years for the labour market will be difficult, but the reason — the lack of qualified personnel, Medvedev said.
The increased share of part-time employment is observed in the regions automotive industry (Samara, Kaluga, Nizhny Novgorod region), in the Republic of Crimea and Sevastopol, and also in the Tver region and the Chuvash Republic with significant employment in the engineering industry, written by the economists of the Ranepa.
As for real incomes, they continue to fall, and in 2016 the rate of decline was higher than a year earlier, according to the monitoring. According to Rosstat, revenues decreased by 5.9% in 2016, a year earlier, a decline of just 3.2%. The increase in revenues was observed in the Leningrad oblast, Crimea, Dagestan and Ingushetia, but most likely, it “can be attributed to the imperfection of statistical accounting”, according to the monitoring.
“Regional disparities are difficult to explain due to issues of statistical accounting of income, but some trends are visible: in most regions of the Central Federal district the decline is less strong, the worst performance have the Ural, Volga and North-Western Federal district, where the rate of decline in revenues in most regions above the average for the country, in Siberia and in the far East such regions of about half” the authors write. Overall, from 2014 to 2016 the decline in real incomes, assuming its cumulative total reached 10%.
At the same time, in January, the real incomes of Russians rose for the first time since October 2014, and 8.1%. However, this occurred due to one-time payments to retirees, pointed to Rosstat. Without taking into account the payment of increases in real income would have amounted to about 1%, said Thursday, March 16, at the Congress of the Russian Union of Industrialists and entrepreneurs, head of the Ministry Maxim Oreshkin. The era of falling incomes of Russians has ended, said in November the first Vice-Premier Igor Shuvalov. “For some groups of the population real incomes are still little, but growing, he said. — I hope that next year all the same it will be the trend for all groups of the population, income will grow”.