The forthcoming tax reform announced by the Russian government that is necessary, but businesses will not increase investment until you understand what it is, written by experts of the Higher school of Economics (HSE)
The uncertainty of the specific parameters of the new tax system may lead to the fact that Russian entrepreneurs “will not boost investment activity of its enterprises”. This was written by experts of the Center for business research and development in its review of investment activity in 2016 and expectations of entrepreneurs for 2017, submitted to RBC. The uncertainty may limit the investment planning horizon year of 2019.
The business needs to understand, “in what direction will change the taxation of labour, capital and estate”, the authors of the review. “Especially in high area of uncertainty is private business and enterprise with a long investment cycle of 5-7 years, and it is the latter form the bulk dynamics of industrial production”, — stated in the materials of Economics.
Investments in fixed capital reduced from 2014. In the first nine months of last year, they decreased by 2.3%, while in the third quarter and showed growth of 0.3% (last available data, Rosstat does not provide operational monthly statistics on investment). The forecast of socio-economic development on the basis of which is laid out on a budget, suggested that the decline of investment in 2016 will amount to 3.7%. Investment activity in the economy will increase after the start of GDP growth in the second half of 2017, said the former Minister of economic development Alexei Ulyukayev.
The influence of the tax system obviously, the business is “game rules” that allow him to build his future plans, said the expert of Economic expert group Alexander Suslin. Chief analyst of Sberbank Mikhail Matovnikov said: tax reform is partly affects the propensity of businesses to invest, but this is not so important for businessmen — not so many companies build their strategy, based on fiscal conditions. The authors of the review the HSE also recognise that tax reform is not “a basic factor to reduce uncertainty in the investment business plans of the business community, but surely they (the entrepreneurs — RBC) would like the main position of the tax of rebuilds to learn as early as possible”. However, “given the unbalanced budget, which will accompany the country’s economy for at least the next three years, it is unlikely that the entrepreneurs hope to reduce or even maintaining the total level of direct and indirect taxes, including specifically Russian corruption and inflation “tax”, the authors of the review.
Finance Minister Anton Siluanov has repeatedly said that tax reform must not increase fees, and the redistribution of the burden on business. According to the plans of the Ministry of Finance, changes can involve reducing the deductions from salaries to social funds and the concomitant rise in VAT, such as taxes on luxury or harmful products. In addition, Siluanov pointed out, the discussion about the revision of tax benefits, which are now very much. In mid-October, the Minister also stated the need to revert to a progressive income tax, however, in December he performed for the preservation of a flat scale. About the discussion of this topic in January, said Deputy Prime Minister Olga Golodets, transferred “Interfax”. However, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said that the issue of a progressive tax “agenda”, and blamed “colleagues in government” who say the opposite.
Suggestions for “setting up” the tax system must be considered in the 2017 and introduce them to the law in 2018, and in 2019, the new rules should enter into force, announced in the annual message of President Vladimir Putin. The main approaches will form in the spring session of the state Duma, said Siluanov. Yet the most high-profile proposals for taxes was not accepted, so business there is no sense that the reform will exert a strong influence on him, said Matovnikov.
The situation with taxes, the HSE cites several factors that negatively affect investment activity. Among them — low demand for manufactured products, the orientation of the Russian economy on raw material and energy exports, the depreciation of fixed assets, corruption, administrative barriers, sanctions, etc. In particular, from a survey of the HSE, which was attended by more than 1,000 managers of industrial organizations, it follows that 20% of the companies because of the sanctions, has halted ongoing investment projects.