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The collapse of the ruble
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The Bank of Russia published the study showed that the majority of Russian industrial enterprises see value in strengthening of the ruble. The weakening of the national currency will not lead to significant export growth, they say
The majority of Russian industrial enterprises need to strengthen the ruble, the depreciation of the national currency will not lead to the conquest of new markets or increase exports to existing markets. To such conclusion experts of the Department of studies and forecasting of the Central Bank and the economic policy Institute (IEP) in a survey of enterprises in industry and agriculture to explore the interest of the enterprises in these or those changes of the ruble.
Study “what do the trends” is published on the website of the Central Bank. Most companies interviewed by the newspaper “Vedomosti”, also spoke in support of the strong ruble.
In total, the study involved 263 industrial enterprises of Russia. The results of the activities 18 of them (7%) fluctuations of the ruble exchange rate have no effect. Of the remaining 245 of the companies, according to the survey, 31% of the enterprises expressed their interest in the weakening of the ruble (including 22% of exporters) and 69% — in the strengthening of the ruble (in which 33% of exporters).
Most of those enterprises, which called for the strengthening of the ruble, believe this measure is necessary to modernize production at the expense of imported equipment, as well as to reduce the cost of their products. And only 18% of respondents were in favour of the strengthening of the ruble to pay the debts in foreign currency.
“It is important to note that a high percentage of responses for the strengthening of the ruble in order to modernize production and reduce the cost of production was characteristic not only of companies operating in the domestic market, but also for businesses that supply products for export. However, none of the respondents noted that needs in the weakening of the ruble, to begin the export of commodities and hence, further depreciation of the ruble does not create for companies that are not exporters with additional opportunities to access foreign markets,” the study says.
The authors emphasized that the weakening of the ruble is not for Russian companies with sufficient factor for successful entry into new markets or increase the supply of the already developed foreign markets. “It speaks to the lack of advantages of a permanent weakening of the ruble for the economy”, — sums up the experts.
The surveys were conducted from 11 to 20 may 2016 in two main areas: industrial enterprises — 263 questionnaires and enterprises agriculture — 109 questionnaires. Among the responding industrial companies 52% are exporters, 48% — not exporters.
The newspaper “Vedomosti” also interviewed some manufacturing company. The publication came to the same conclusion as the authors of the study: the majority of respondents would prefer a strong ruble. As told to Vice-President of ABH Miratorg Vadim Kotenko, the devaluation has helped meat producers, which on the one hand, began to develop production and to increase deliveries to the Russian market, and on the other — got an opportunity to strengthen competitiveness in global markets.
CEO Lesprom Network Alexey Bogatyrev noted that the forest industry is the devaluation of the ruble in the hand of export-oriented enterprises: producers of lumber, pulp, roundwood, plywood. Those who supplies products to the domestic market, a weak ruble only hurts because they are unable to develop, purchase imported technology and equipment, said Bogatyrev.
The President of the jewelry Almaz-holding Vluyn Gumerov said that the company is interested in a strong ruble as commodity prices tied to the prices of the London stock exchange, while the export is up to 30% of the holding’s products.