Alexei Kudrin and Boris Titov presented the President with his economic program. Vladimir Putin listened to them but make specific decisions did not
Chairman of the Board of the Center for strategic research (CSR), Alexei Kudrin, and the business Ombudsman, the head of the Stolypin club, Boris Titov presented to President Vladimir Putin their strategies for economic growth. However, the head of state no decision on the outcome of the discussion was not accepted.
The meeting was held behind closed doors. The key document from the viewpoint of long-term development strategy, in any case, is the government’s plan to accelerate growth of the economy, Putin explained in his introductory remarks (this program develops Ministry of economic development, informed the President presented Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev). Participants must decide how the proposed strategy compete with each other, he said. Given that the documents produced are “complete”, you need to decide whether to take a job some of them fully or “something with something to connect, Supplement, and based on this additional analysis to make a final decision as to which way we will go and what initiatives to what extent will implement”. The plans of the authorities must be “clear and realistic”, to make a bid you need to improve the business climate, growth of competitiveness, labour productivity and non-oil exports, said the head of state.
In the programs of CSR and the Stolypin club “there are a lot of similarities,” he told the meeting Titov. The Stolypin club and its programme presented in March. Business Ombudsman introduced several key areas, which, in his opinion, will help to accelerate the growth of the Russian economy to 6% by 2020. The program of the Stolypin club requires an annual investment of $ 1.5 trillion in the next five years. The Central Bank, according to Titov and his colleagues, should create new development institutions (and should be allocated 700 billion rubles annually), to improve the mechanisms of state guarantees and to abandon the mass withdrawal of licenses from banks, in parallel, insuring the deposits of legal entities in the amount of up to 1.5 million rubles (similar to individuals). “Bank of bad debts” will cost 450 billion roubles annually.
The authorities should also stimulate the private production sector of the economy to support exports to subsidize food and medicine for vulnerable population, to increase the efficiency and to reduce tariffs for infrastructure and raw material monopolies. One of the key points in the program Titov and his companions — the easing of monetary policy, the business Ombudsman proposes to set it at the level of “inflation+2%”. Titov in favor and against raising the retirement age (Kudrin has traditionally been a supporter of this measure, however, it is this question not commenting — RBC). Benefits from its increase does not compensate for negative social impact, said the business Ombudsman in a conversation with journalists after the meeting.
Putin, according to Titov, has proposed to focus on judicial and other institutional reforms. The Stolypin club will work with the government and with CSR in their strategies, “all of this will be analyzed and selected the most important thing,” said Titov. No time limit, as follows from his words, Putin did not, however, “he suggested that we all worked on our programs from the point of view of their attempts of coordination and unification.”
CSR Alexei Kudrin your program is not yet published and almost didn’t disclose the measures registered in it. To decide what to publish, will be the President, Kudrin said, the meeting officially handing the document to Putin. The President had already planned several meetings on strategies in June and July, said the head of CSR. At a meeting Tuesday, the final assessments of the proposals were not given, the goal was “to hear the concept,” Kudrin said. Its part of the CSR experts did, now to decide should the Kremlin, he added.
In his keynote speech at the conference Higher school of Economics in April, Kudrin said that the main obstacles to the growth of GDP in Russia are problems of governance, dependence on oil exports to get rid of that and failed, and the sanctions, the negative impact of which is felt more and more.
A key factor in the success of reforms should be to increase trust in government in the first two or three years of implementation of changes, and in the years 2020-2026 need to focus on building investment. However, this still will not help to achieve the planned growth rate of 3-4% per year, stressed Kudrin, the main driver should be the growth of productivity, which will replace the consumption pulled GDP forward in the past. In addition, the authorities need to reduce the share of government in the economy, to implement a new competition policy to decentralization and effective foreign policy. Now tough competition is only for the administrative resource, Kudrin believes.
On Tuesday, the head of the CSR disclosed that insists on the refusal to increase the fiscal burden in the next six years (meaning taxes and non-tax fees). Exception — the tax maneuver in the oil sector and the possible return of certain excise tax, Kudrin noted. CSR is at odds with the Stolypin club in monetary policy, once again he recalled, “in their desire to print money and distribute to the investment.” That’s not the problem, but the lack of labor and low productivity, Kudrin stressed.
The specific parameters of their proposals, the head of the CSR informed hardly spoke, however, in an interview with TASS in early may, he noted that his experts offer to increase spending on education by 0.8% of GDP on health care — 0.7%, for the introduction of technologies in modern transport — by 0.8%. To make this CSR plans due to defense cuts and public spending. In addition, the center Kudrin insists on easing of budget rules — measures of the CSR provides that in the reserves will be sent to the windfall from oil for more than $45 per barrel (currently $40).
Any suggestions can be voiced before the election, some as training will be included in a strategic document such as how last time was the may decrees, Kudrin said on Tuesday. It’s hard to say whether the discussion of economic strategies to end what measures will be included in the plan of the government, he said.
Apparently, Russia will be the two main strategic document is the government’s plan and program of the President, says the interlocutor of RBC familiar with the meeting. A program of the President just needs to be compiled from the proposals of the CSR and of the Stolypin club, he continues: one of the strategies will take the basis, then it integrates measures from the other. The basis of all proposals should be based on the plan of the government, said earlier Vladimir Putin.