Photo: Dmitry Azarov / Kommersant
Officials and security forces estimate that the Russian economy better than the citizens employed in other industries, experts said Ranepa. They are also more sure of their position: less fear of job loss or wage cuts
Military, MVD and FSB, as well as officials of the state and municipal level more often speak about a stable situation in the Russian economy. These data are presented in the regular monitoring of the economic situation (.pdf), prepared by the experts of the Ranepa, the rfta and the Gaidar Institute.
So, 58% of respondents working in the military or law enforcement agencies, believe that the economic situation of the country in recent years has not changed. Among officials, this opinion of 57.2% of respondents. In other categories in the stability of the economy believe less than half of the respondents in the industry such 33,3%, in construction – 43,7%, in utilities and transport – 46,9%, in trade – 40,7%, and in education, medicine, culture and science to 38.1%. The survey involved 1,600 people and was carried out in November last year. In General, the deterioration of the situation say 53%.
The current forecast of socio-economic development envisages GDP growth of 0.6% in 2017. However, the Minister of economic development Maxim Oreshkin said that the authorities will revise their expectations and improve the prognosis for economic growth to 2%.
“Socio-professional status and employment in various fields of activities largely form a picture of the extent and duration of the crisis phenomena” — the authors say Ranepa. They point out that the crisis has not affected the army and public administration. At the same time, according to Rosstat, wages in the “state management and military security” is growing slower than the national average: in 2016, they grew by 4.4% compared to 2015, and the average for all industries was 7.8%.
6,5% of the security forces and 7.1% of the officials believe that recently the Russian economy has a positive trend, the study said Ranepa. More optimistic only in the scientific and educational categories of 7.9%. 16.1% of employees of power structures and 7.1% of public servants believe that the economic situation has deteriorated markedly. In other categories of supporters of this point of view more — from 19.8% to 26.6%.
Another option was offered to respondents, provides for a “full-fledged crisis” in Russia. The views of government officials and security forces was the opposite. Of a crisis, said 6.5% of law enforcement and military — more than in any other category. But in the midst of state and municipal administration, economic decline see 0% of the respondents.
According to the Levada center, 78 percent of Russians agree (or rather agree) with the fact that the country is experiencing economic crisis. 26% believe that it will be “very long”, another 22% believe that the crisis will last at least two years. Most Russians resigned to the prospect of a prolonged crisis, RBC said a sociologist at the Levada center Marina Krasilnikova. Estimate the duration of the crisis also depends on the kind of activity, experts Ranepa: among industrial workers and a half times more supporters of the view that the crisis will continue for another two years or more than among officials or security forces.
Military, law enforcement and government officials are also less likely to fear losing their jobs: this “has not happened and is unlikely to happen”, according to 69% of the security forces and 71.4% of civil servants. With such optimism on the prospects of employment look only workers of education, medicine and science (70,3%). In addition, among officials and law-least of all those who have lost their places: 3.4% in the army, interior Ministry and FSB, and 0% in the sphere of state and municipal management (mostly those in construction – by 16.3%).
Wages are insensitive to the crisis industries are also almost did not fall — the decrease in the earnings reported by only 6.5% of the security forces and 7.1% of the officials. In other categories the reductions of income stated 3-4 times more of the respondents. Security forces and officials are also confident that their wages will not fall — this opinion among them adhere to 71% of respondents, while in other categories only 38-60%.