Russians differed with the government to forecast weakening of the ruble

The Russians, who have already given “the most accurate forecast of the ruble,” expect it to weaken to RUB only 58-59 per dollar on the horizon year, VTSIOM said. The larger decline of the ruble, the economic development Ministry expects

The Russians do not believe in the weakening of the ruble, projected in the government, the dollar will remain below 60 rubles, show the results of recent studies polls on the “national Outlook” of the national currency. According to the respondents the state of sociologists, the dollar in three months will cost 59 rubles., and after a year (that is by April 2018) — 58 RUB.

Waiting Russians on ruble has improved since the previous survey in March they were waiting for easing to 60 RUB. in three months and to 59 RUB. in a year.

VTSIOM interviewed a random 1800 respondents. The study took into account polls predict only those respondents, who said they are interested in the exchange rate, RBC said the expert polls Oleg chernozub. Those of 60.8% of the adult population, he says.

The forecasts of ordinary citizens do not coincide with the expectations of the government. The Minister of economic development Maxim Oreshkin last week reported that it expects the stronger dollar to 62-63 RUB the end of the year at current oil prices. With the decline in oil prices to $40 a barrel the dollar will be worth 68 rubles, said Oreshkin. The decline of the national currency will begin in the second or third quarter, said the Minister, whereas at the beginning of the year he was prevented seasonal strong balance of payments.

Dollar on the Moscow stock exchange as of 14:26 GMT traded at RUB 56,75 Current consensus is for banking analysts that Bloomberg polls, suggests the strengthening of the us dollar to 59 RUB. in the second quarter of 2017 and the increase to 59,74 rubles in the first quarter of 2018.

The population of “more than adequately” addresses the possible rate compared to economic development, says the head of operations on money and FX markets Metallinvestbank Sergey Romanchuk. The forecast of the Ministry “is very different from the market price”, which reduces its probability to below 50%, he adds. Accurate models for the prediction of the exchange rate in a floating exchange rate does not exist, insists Romanchuk: “Despite the fact that the structure of the economy is fixed, the same oil prices can widely vary. Customer preferences in risk-taking can also vary, the same situation with the political events.”

VTSIOM focuses on the accuracy of predictions of the Russians. In March of last year, they predicted the dollar to 55 RUB. in a year, although in February 2016, the dollar was worth nearly 80 RUB “Ordinary citizens” gave the most accurate forecast for the ruble, given in the message words Chernozub. “If we assume that the “national forecast” reflects some fundamental patterns and is a factor of economic behavior at least of the household, we make the following prediction: in the Wake of continued steady trend to strengthen in the short term, the ruble will weaken. The nearest target is 60, with a probability of peak values in the area of 65 rubles per dollar,” said chernozub.

Expectations of the population is “guess”, investors do not consider them in its forecasts, says Romanchuk. Stable correlation between the actual situation and evaluation of population, exchange rate and so quite difficult to be predicted, even reviews of professional analysts “are not distinguished by special predictive power,” he adds.

“Our measurements also registered an important long-term trend: strong confidence in the fundamental stability of the national currency. None of the previous crises such confidence was not so severe”, — says VTSIOM.

Anton Feinberg



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