Elvira Nabiullina spoke in the state Duma with a report on how the regulator keeps a healthy body” the Russian financial market. First of all, she warned that the printing press, as it requires long presidential adviser Glazyev, a start will not. That is, to promote inflation due to the “new” trillion rubles monetary authorities do not intend to. In addition, to expel from the market of microfinance institutions that provide small and affordable loans also will not. She suggested another way: if since March of this year, the law stipulates that the duty on such loan shall not exceed 300% of the original amount, by the end of the year it is necessary to introduce not more than 100%. Finally, Nabiullina said that the regulator will oblige the insurance company from 1 January 2017 to provide citizens with the possibility of purchase of electronic insurance policies, which will facilitate their acquisition.
“Now the floating exchange rate works as an automatic stabiliser of the economy, softening the impact of external shocks”, — reminded the deputies of the state Duma Elvira obvious truth. However, she stressed that at the turn of 2015-2016 years, it is the floating exchange rate helped to preserve financial stability in our country.
Therefore, the proposal of a number of politicians and experts to re-fix the exchange rate and to introduce the obligatory sale of export currency earnings — to put it mildly, overdue. Now is not the end of the 1990-ies. A printing machine of the problems of our economy will not solve.
Of course, you can throw in the real sector, as proposed by Sergei Glazyev, trillions of rubles. You can even give the top team the government and the Central Bank to ensure that, if spent the money as intended Glazyev. But on the other hand, it is known that the problem is not the number of banknotes, as well as their use. Russian enterprises due to the depreciation in the last year, according to various estimates have accumulated to 15 trillion rubles. But do not hurry them although where to invest. Don’t trust the current economic situation.
So it’s not the size of the key rate of the Central Bank (10 June it was reduced from 11% to 10.5%), and in the quality of business institutions in General and investor confidence in the government.
It is no coincidence that Elvira Nabiullina urged members to structural reforms. While noting that the Russian economy under pressure of the recent crisis, including Western sanctions, unexpectedly demonstrated “adaptability”, and “not passive, but active manufacturing sector has shown recently quite strong growth.
And in General, all the economic agents of Russia as certain securities that have adapted to the floating exchange rate regime. And the resumption of GDP growth — is not far off.
But if the macro-economy and even with inflation better and better (the growth rate of prices, for example, at the beginning of June slowed down to zero), credit loads of ordinary citizens is not so simple. They grow and primarily through microfinance institutions that give borrow money quickly and without any restrictions, but expose, as you know, usurious interest rates — up to 1,000% APR or more.
Of course, this kind of loans intended to survive the money hunger with a week to paycheck. And so to repay 5-15 thousand rubles within a period not too difficult. And if the wages are detained, for how long? Then debt bondage, which allowed, as a rule, collectors. And there’s it comes to the worst.
Many deputies of the state Duma propose to do to deny it, and “usurers”, and “bouncers”. However, Elvira Nabiullina, speaking in the Duma on 14 June, offered another solution: no ban. Otherwise, the potential debtor will leave from the legal market to the illegal. That will only cause more problems.
But it is possible to legally restrict the greatest amount of debt to microfinance institutions 100%. That is, if you borrowed 10 thousand rubles, it will need with all sorts of delays, not more than 20 thousand Now — will have to pay 40 thousand
If this proposal Nabiullina will take place, collectors will not be interested in working with debtors: too little base percentage.
Microfinance institutions in 2015 has concluded, with a population of 11.27 million loan agreements that almost a third (30.5 per cent) higher than a year earlier, said the Central Bank. The amount of loans granted to natural persons for the year grew by 11.7% to 117,5 billion. The average loan size has reduced to 10.4 thousand 12.2 thousand. In the segment of loans to paycheck” (up to 45 thousand roubles for the term up to two months), on the contrary, loan size has increased to 6.7 thousand rubles from 5.8 thousand. The number of contracts with legal entities and individual entrepreneurs decreased by 32.7% and amounted to 53.6 thousand pieces. The volume of microloans to individual entrepreneurs has decreased to 11 billion to 14.3 billion rubles, legal entities — from 11.4 billion to 11.9 billion rubles. The average size of a microloan to an individual entrepreneur in 2015 increased to 340,3 thousand 311 thousand rubles, a legal entity to 533,1 thousand 350,8 thousand.