The choice of vector: what to expect from the economic forum in St. Petersburg

Photo: Vladislav Shatilo / RBC

SPIEF-2017

And stands help: they are ready to show the participants of the SPIEF-2017
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In the Kremlin told about the work of Putin at a forum in Petersburg
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In St. Petersburg starts the main economic forum of Russia — SPIEF. About 8 thousand participants of the forum will hear discussions of the Russian reforms, the performance of Vladimir Putin and the first three years of the business dialogue Russia—the USA

From 1 to 3 June in St. Petersburg will host the next, XXI international economic forum. Its main theme is stated “the search for a new balance in the global economy”. About one third of all activities assigned by the organizers of the Russian economic agenda, the official program. Everything else is a global economy, technology, human capital, futures “conversations about the future.” In this sense, the SPIEF takes a stylistic cue from the world economic forum in Davos, its Director, Klaus Schwab, as time will tell in St. Petersburg on the “fourth industrial revolution”.

If we proceed from the thesis that through the program of SPIEF organizers (and the forum, as you know, is held under the patronage of President Vladimir Putin) broadcast of Russia’s economic agenda to “correct” its perception abroad and within the country, the authorities want to show that the economy began to grow and Russia has the groundwork to calmly discuss the future. And this future from the perspective of the call is no different from what actually matters to the West: automation and robotics as a threat to traditional jobs, blockchain, new technologies, a rollback of globalization, etc do not fall out of the global processes that indicate the organizers, and while economic growth in the country is small, but the global economy is at the “crossroads of growth or stability,” as the name of one of the sessions, which will be attended by the Chairman of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina and Finance Minister Anton Siluanov.

A year ago in St. Petersburg talked a lot about the Russian budget, which at that time was only adapted to the new reality. Now the mood is clearly more optimistic: the government is expecting additional revenues this year of 1.2 trillion rubles and can afford the additional cost of several hundred billion, and the recent renewal of agreements by OPEC and other major oil exporters to limit production ensures at least the current price of oil, just enough to Russia again began to save up reserves.

Putin, meeting on the eve of the St. Petersburg forum with developers competing economic strategies Alexei Kudrin and Boris Titov, gave to understand that to force a choice will not be — these strategies, as told after the meeting, Titov, you need to try to “coordinate and unify”. Uncomfortable questions about the choice between reform and conservation, according to the SPIEF program will be formulated on Friday, Sberbank business Breakfast entitled “What to expect after may 2018?” (after presidential elections). Moderator, the head of Sberbank German Gref will ask about the choice of the vector — rate stability, which is conducive to the preservation of low growth and the “archaization” of the economy or structural reform, the time for which “less”? In this conversation will participate Siluanov, first Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov, the Chairman of the accounts chamber Tatyana Golikova and the Minister of economic development Maxim Oreshkin.

Photo: Vladislav Shatilo / RBC

Ad reform will not happen

One of the key macroeconomic sessions will be held in the first day, Thursday, will be devoted to the transition “from stabilization to growth” — discuss this transit will be Elvira, Siluanov, Kudrin and…. “What you need to bet in development strategies? That can become the new driver of the economy? What policy changes are necessary and what measures of support will make a difference?” — announce the organizers of the topics for discussion. If the “stabilization” of 2016 major role played by the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank, then “growth” must meet the Ministry of economic development, and later the authors of the joint economic strategy, which is approved by Putin. In other sessions on the first day of the forum Titov will discuss its “growth Strategy”, but Kudrin will speak about the image of Russia in 2035. Kudrin is preparing a program to 2024, and discusses plans for 2035, that he was “confused” politicians and experts, said a source in one of the business associations. Perhaps he will present something new, waits for the source.

But big business in any case does not relies on the disclosure of the details of the program Kudrinsky of the Center for strategic research (CSR), as the plan of economic development that have not yet been published. The Russian Union of Industrialists and entrepreneurs are not waiting for the forum presentation of strategic documents, said a source close to the Union. Uncover can “General outline,” he says, in General, the program will publish “sooner or later”, and the practice shows that the current classification is not surprising.

Representative CSR only told RBC that Kudrin will speak about “the state of the economy, technology, and the importance of development of regions”. According to “Vedomosti”, in terms Kudrin three priority technological development, human capital, and the modern state, the main factor of growth should be productivity. The technological “revolution” is proposed due to the formation of “strategic consortia”, which will support specinvtehnica and subsidies. By 2024, the speaker aims to establish the infrastructure of the digital economy. This element of its programme Kudrin, apparently, to be discussed at the session of the SPIEF on June 3 “the Digitalization of critical infrastructure and strategic consortia”. About the last we can say only that this “consortium, which unites providers of technology solutions, consumer data solutions and control in the face of the state.”

To disclose details of the plan of the Ministry was “premature” and CSR showed the contours of his document at the meeting the President has yet to publish beyond this center of nothing, says the Vice-President “Business Russia” Anastasiya Alekhnovich. Most likely, the President will once again draw the attention of all the experts that need the joint work of all three strategies, she believes. “From the point of view of the announcement on the cooperation of large-scale programmes should await the evolution and kristallizuetsya consensus project of bringing together all the possible proposals for the economic development of Russia”, — said the chief economist of the Eurasian development Bank Yaroslav Lissovolik. And CSR, and the Stolypin club Titova agree that Russia needs to improve investment climate, so the emphasis of the forum will be made in this direction, says Lissovolik. In General SPIEF exists to “communicate with the world”, the international economy will be the main topic for discussion, said the President of “OPORA Russia” Alexander Kalinin, this time it will be “an unprecedented number of foreign participants”. The Ministry of economic development, in his opinion, his plan will not be discussed, as it is not ready yet.

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And stands help: they are ready to show the participants of the SPIEF-2017

June 1, 2017 in St. Petersburg opened the 21-th international economic forum. Traditionally, guests here will meet the stands of the companies of the Russian regions and even countries. What…

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It is not clear whether the Ministry of economic development in his plan “tax maneuver”, but the parameters of this maneuver, designed to reduce the burden on labor, still not identified in the financial-economic bloc of the government, future rates of insurance contributions and VAT are still being discussed. The premise of the Ministry of Finance, which he said, — the overall tax burden should not increase. “The setting of the tax system” will be discussed June 2 at the SPIEF Siluanov, Golikova and the head of the Duma Committee on budget Andrey Makarov. Perhaps the President will speak at the forum about the details of the budget rule, which has already been submitted to the government — in the future, this rule should determine the upper limit of budget expenditures.

Putin and foreign business

The main event of the forum will traditionally become the speech of Vladimir Putin at the plenary session on Friday. To participate will also be the Prime Minister of India, Federal Chancellor of Austria and President of Moldova, and moderate — host of the TV channel NBC Megyn Kelly, who had a public conflict with Donald trump during his campaign. Putin will also meet with Prime Minister of Iraqi Kurdistan, the UN Secretary General, Director General of the IAEA, will meet with heads of international news agencies, will participate in the meeting with the expert Council of the Russian direct investment FUND and representatives of the international investment community. “This time involved large investment funds from 23 countries, including France, Britain, Arab Emirates, Brazil, India and some other countries,” — said on the eve of the forum, presidential aide Yuri Ushakov. Also by tradition will be a meeting of the President and the heads of major foreign companies and business associations, are invited to participate 62 of the head corporations, said Ushakov. The forum will be held for the first time in three years and business dialogue Russia — the USA, which Putin also plans to attend.

“I don’t think that during the forum we will hear some breakthrough solutions. Given that the President is a supporter of evolutionary development, fundamental statements can hardly wait”, — the President Trading-industrial chamber Sergey Katyrin.

The delegation, representing the interests of American business, will be the most representative at the forum — 369. For comparison: the delegation of business circles of India, whence there will arrive the main guest of the forum, Prime Minister Narendra modi will account for only 59 people, and Germany (main partner of Russia in Europe) — 147, China (main partner of Russia in Asia) is 76 people. Among the representatives of the American business forum chief Executive officer EххonMobil Darren woods, Vice-President of Chevron, J. brayer, President of Boeing International Bertrand Marc Allen, CEO of Hyperloop Transportation Dirk Ahlborn, the head of Caterpillar Jim Ampli, Vice-President of the US chamber of Commerce Myron Brilliant, a well-known investor Jim Rogers.

What else will be on the forum

Igor Shuvalov will speak at the session “the Blockchain — the birth of a new economy,” will moderate the discussion the head of Vnesheconombank Sergey Gorkov.

The Director of the Department of information and press of the foreign Ministry Maria Zakharova will speak at the session dedicated to the “fake” news, “PostPage”, mechanisms of protection from “information attacks and provocations”.

Problems of urbanization, creation of a comfortable urban environment will be discussed by the Minister of construction and housing Mikhail Men and the former head of the Moscow Department of culture Sergei Kapkov, the moderator will lead the Sunday issue of “Time” on the First channel Valery Fadeev.

On the final day of the forum Vladimir Putin will attend the naming ceremony for Arctic tanker-liquefied gas carrier “Christophe de Margerie” — the vessel’s ice class Arc7 developed for the project “Yamal LNG”.

Business agenda of the forum includes several “business-dialogue”: in addition to the Russian-American, Russia — France, Russia — Japan, Russia — Italy and others In the Russian-Italian event will be attended by the head of “Rosneft” Igor Sechin and the General Director of “Rostec” Sergey Chemezov, the head of Pirelli Marco Tronchetti provera, Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Russian Bank “Intesa” Antonio Fallico. Associated with the “Rosneft” company is the shareholder of Pirelli, and Sechin is on the Board of Directors of the tire manufacturer and Intesa helped with the privatization of 19.5% stake in Rosneft last year.

Of the largest Russian businessmen, the forum will bring together seven of the ten richest people in Russia according to Forbes: Leonid Mikhelson and Alexey Mordashov, Vagit Alekperov, Andrey Melnichenko, Gennady Timchenko, Alisher Usmanov, Viktor Vekselberg with $107 billion and other billionaires, Mikhail Prokhorov, Mikhail Gutseriev, Victor Rashnikov, Oleg Deripaska, Andrey Guriev, Vladimir Yevtushenkov, Vladimir Bogdanov, Mikhail Shishkhanov, Roman Trotsenko, the list of participants, which is at the RBC.

 

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