Photo: Alexander Ryumin / TASS
In the next 20 years, real growth of pensions will be zero, follows from the forecast of economic development, which read “Vedomosti”. Incomes of Russians will be able to return to pre-crisis 2013 to 2022
According to the target version of the macroeconomic forecast of Ministry of economic development to 2035 in 20 years Russia will not be real growth of pensions. About this “Vedomosti” reports with reference to the document.
Authorities want to increase the rate of economic growth due to the increase in the number of persons in employment, investment and productivity. The forecast implies that employment growth can be achieved in particular by increasing the retirement age for men to 65 years for women to 63 years.
In this case, the number of pensioners by 2035 will be reduced by 23%, they will be less 7 million people, compared with 2017 year. Employment growth will be 1 million people. If reform does not hold, the number of pensioners will increase by 5.4 million people, the number of Russians decreased by 3.2 million
The newspaper writes that raising the retirement age will be accompanied by a sharp drop in the level of pensions. On the basis of the replacement rate (relative to wage), the decline will amount to 13% — from 35% to 22%.
“From the implementation of the plan to increase economic growth at least a fifth of the population not only did not win, but, on the contrary, loses: their incomes compared to other highly reduced”, — concluded the “Vedomosti”.
The reduction of the replacement rate and the number of retirees will reduce the ratio of pension benefits to the wages Fund 28% to 15%. According to the forecast, in this case, investment will grow in 1,5-2 times faster than the economy.
Economic growth to 2026 will be 3.5% with successful implementation of reforms. Ministry of economic development expects that after 2026 the growth of the Russian economy will slow, but global growth will be lower. Based on the forecast implies that the real income of the population reached the pre-crisis level of 2013, only five years later — by 2022.
In the next 20 years, the incomes will increase by 55%, real wages — by 56.5%, the economic growth will reach 78% compared with the year 2016. However, pensions will rise by only 2.5%. The Ministry considers that their growth will continue into 2024, but till 2022 in real terms they will decline. As a result, by 2035 the pension will be 4% below the 2013 level.
The forecast is calculated as the indexation of pensions from April 1 to no more than 1% per year based on the revenue growth of the Pension Fund. An official from the Ministry of economic development in an interview with “Vedomosti” said that this applies only to idle pensioners. Insurance pensions to the target option plan from February 1 will be increased annually for inflation last year.
In terms of the average insurance pension in 2035 will be 13 thousand rubles., and non-working retiree will receive approximately 15.5 thousand.
Prime Minister of Russia Dmitry Medvedev in mid-may presented to the head of state Vladimir Putin the plan of work of the government until 2025. Medvedev declared that by 2020, the rate of growth of the Russian economy, possibly, will be above the global average.