The energy Ministry has calculated the rising cost of gasoline in 2017

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If raising taxes on oil and gas company in 2017, the Ministry offers most of 136 billion rubles to 200 billion rubles to withdraw in the form of excise taxes on fuel. This can lead to an increase in petrol prices by 1.6 per litre RUB.

The Option Of The Ministry Of Finance

The Ministry of energy, Ministry of Finance and former Deputy Minister Sergey Shatalov had until Wednesday, September 21, to submit to the government their calculations on withdrawal of cash from oil companies to the budget in 2017. This is stated in the minutes of a meeting on taxes in the oil industry, which took place a week ago under the leadership of Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich (RBC has a copy of the Protocol).

The meeting was also attended by energy Minister Alexander Novak, Deputy Minister of economic development Stanislav Voskresensky, representatives of the Ministry of Finance, head “Surgutneftegaz” and “Bashneft” Vladimir Bogdanov and Alexander Korsik, the managers of LUKOIL, Rosneft and other oil companies, according to the Protocol.

Pursuant to this mandate, the Deputy Minister of energy Kirill Molodtsov September 20, sent to the Ministry for the coordination of positions and departments in the government proposal of the energy Ministry, the Finance Ministry and oil companies to increase the tax burden. A copy of this document also have RBC, its authenticity was confirmed by a source in the Ministry of energy and the interlocutors in the two companies.

The letter compares the current version of the tax maneuver for 2017 with offers of the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of energy and oil companies. According to the document, in the budget it is planned to attract an additional 200 billion rubles due to the increase in mineral extraction tax, excise tax and export duties in different ways. The option of the Ministry of Finance, calculated at oil price of $40 per barrel and the dollar 64,8 RUB, suggests that a large part of this amount will be withdrawn from the oil companies at the expense of the additional increase of the tax on mineral extraction (met) to 473 RUB., up to 1392 rubles per ton (maneuver assumed increase in mineral extraction tax 2017 only 62 RUB with the current 857 RUB, to RUB 919 per tonne). This will increase the burden on all companies producing oil in Russia, and not only those that export oil.

The export duty, as laid down in the maneuver, the Finance Ministry proposes to reduce from 42 to 30%. This is confirmed RBC a source in the Ministry of Finance.

The excise tax on gasoline and diesel fuel should also be reduced, according to the original plans, from 10.13 to 7.43 thousand RUB thousand RUB per ton, and from 5.29 thousand to 5.1 thousand rubles per ton, the letter said Molodtsov. In this case, the gasoline would have fallen by 0.8 rubles. per liter, and diesel fuel has risen by 0.6 RUB According Kоrtes of September, the average price of gasoline AI-95 in Russia amounted to 38.3 rubles.per liter.

But in fact, the Ministry of Finance offers a less sharp decline in the excise tax on gasoline (up to 8430 RUB per tonne) and increase the excise tax on diesel fuel (up to 6093 rubles per ton), according to a source in this Department. How will this affect consumer prices for gasoline and diesel fuel, he says. The total amount of withdrawals in the case of the variant of the Ministry of Finance will amount to 232 billion rubles, the letter said Molodtsov. This figure confirms the source of RBC. The official representative of Department did not respond to a request.

The Ministry of energy and oil

Scenario, the energy Ministry and oil companies imply additional exemptions for oil producers only 200 billion rubles, said in a letter Molodtsova. The energy Ministry wants to further increase the met only 128 RUB, to RUB 1047 per ton. This will bring the budget of 64 billion rubles.

But the main load of RUB 136 billion — will fall on the excise tax on gasoline and other petroleum products. According to the scenario Department the excise tax on gasoline and diesel fuel is expected to grow by 2.7 thousand and 1.36 thousand RUB, respectively, compared to the tax maneuver (in the end the excise tax on gasoline will remain at 2016 — 10,13 thousand rubles., and even diesel fuel will increase from 5293 to 6453. This can lead to an increase in petrol prices by 1.6 per liter RUB and RUB 1.9 per litre of diesel at filling stations in 2017.

The official representative of the Ministry of energy confirmed to RBC that the Agency sent the materials with proposals for withdrawals of funds from the oil in the form of the tax burden in 2017, but did not comment on their essence. According to him, the discussion of the scenarios, the tax burden continues, the inconclusive option. Earlier Dvorkovich instructed the relevant departments to present a coherent position until 1 October.

LUKOIL, “Surgutneftegaz”, “Gazprom Neft” and “Bashneft” has proposed to raise the export duty in 2017 by 300 rubles per ton of oil, thereby collecting RUB 100 billion and another 100 billion rubles to bail out at the expense of growth of excises on oil products, the letter said Molodtsov. The result is a liter of gasoline retail price will rise by 1.5 rubles, and diesel fuel — by 0.7 RUB met they propose to raise as embodied in the tax maneuver — 62 RUB, to RUB 919 per ton. These calculations of RBC was confirmed by sources in two oil companies and a source in the Ministry of energy.

And the largest oil company — “Rosneft” — do not agree on an increase in export duties. In her opinion, all 200 billion rubles to recover due to the growth of the excise tax, said in a letter to the Ministry of energy. How will this affect retail prices of gasoline and diesel fuel, Fellows writes. Press Secretary of “Rosneft” Mikhail Leontyev and the representative of “Gazprom oil” did not respond to calls. The representative of LUKOIL has refused comments, the representative of “Surgutneftegaz” could not be reached.

The interlocutors of RBC in the major oil companies say that the increase in excise taxes is a way to transfer part of the tax burden on the consumer. The increase in tax proposed by the Finance Ministry scenario means that they reduce cash flow and profitability of mining projects. Refining margin will also suffer. When interviewed by RBC, the oil executives understand that the Ministry of Finance does not refuse plans of additional tax exemptions.

If increasing the tax burden of 200 billion rubles in 2017 can not be avoided, then the officials should be guided by the opinion of the companies, at the expense of the business segment they want to help the budget, the analyst, Vygon Consulting Anton Rubtsov. “The maximum increase in the severance tax on the scenario of the Ministry of Finance is the easiest. This is a direct withdrawal from the sector of oil production,” he says. But the effects from increased excise taxes are the most unpredictable, he warns: if we can quickly pass the excise tax in retail price, you lose the consumer, if we fail — will suffer oil refining, which is average on the verge of profitability. For most companies the most appropriate combination with the increase of duties and excises, signs of Scars.

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