Photo: Alexey Filippov / RIA Novosti
The Minister of economic development Maxim Oreshkin presented its first macroeconomic forecast: he’s more optimistic for 2017 than the former, but more pessimistic in the longer term
The Russian economy in 2017 will grow more than previously expected, but then growth will slow and will be limited to 1.5% per year, from a new underlying macroeconomic scenario, which has prepared Ministry of economic development. Thursday, April 6, he presented the head of the Ministry Maxim Oreshkin.
In 2017, GDP will grow by 2% after shrinking 0.2% last year, but in 2018-2020 economic growth will be only 1.5% annually. If by 2017 the Ministry of economic development have significantly improved the forecast (0.6%) by the 2018-2019 years forecast lowered (1.7 and 2.1%, respectively).
His forecast office. actually says: if the economy is to leave everything as it is, the problem of President Vladimir Putin to bring the economy on growth is not below average by the 2019-2020 years will be impossible. The average growth of the world economy in recent years, according to the IMF, higher than 3%.
Target looks optimistic scenario, the Agency, dependent on the implementation of a comprehensive government action plan. This scenario envisages an increase in the number of employed in the economy (increased economic activity, the rise of mobility in the labour market, reducing structural unemployment), the growth of investment activity and non-oil exports (predictable environment for business, improving the business climate, the tax system and support of export, project financing, preparation of qualified personnel and of infrastructure), growth of labor productivity. If these conditions are fulfilled, GDP in 2018, an increase of 1.7%, in 2019 — 2.5%, in 2020 by 3.1%.
The Ministry of economic development lays in both versions of the forecast weakening of the ruble. In the baseline scenario, the average rate in 2017 will amount to 64.2 rubles per dollar in 2018 — 69,8 RUB, in the next two years is 71.2 and 72.7 rubles. respectively. Target scenario for the dollar is not much different from a baseline and assumes that in 2020 the average rate will be 71,8 RUB the dollar now (about 56 rubles — RBC) stronger than it would be in the absence of operations of the Ministry of Finance for the purchase of the currency, said Oreshkin journalists.
Inflation according to the forecast of Ministry of economic development in some years, fall even below the Central Bank target of 4%. This Agency sees no risk of deflation in 2017, said Mr Oreshkin. In the future this possibility cannot be excluded, but in General, a deflationary scenario for Russia is unlikely due to inflation targeting by the Central Bank, said the Minister.