Photo: Dado Ruvic / Reuters
The Ministry of Finance in may buy currency eight times less than in the previous month. Such a sharp decline, the Agency explains the strong revaluation of oil and gas revenues — last month they were less than 46 billion rubles.
In may, the Finance Ministry will buy foreign currency on ruble-denominated oil and gas windfall to eight times less than in April. Last month the Ministry of Finance has directed on purchase of currency at 69.9 billion rubles, however at the end of the month actually received a windfall of oil and gas was 46 billion rubles less than expected by the Agency. In may, the Finance Ministry predicts 54.5 billion RUB of oil and gas additional revenues. “Thus, the total amount of funds allocated for the purchase of foreign currency on the domestic foreign exchange market in the period from 10 may to 6 June 2017, is estimated at 8.5 billion rubles”, — stated in the message Department. The final figure emerged as the forecast for the oil and gas dopdohodov (54.5 billion Euro), less “error” in prediction for the previous month (46 billion).
Daily net purchases amounted to only 400 million rubles, says the Finance Ministry. This is a negligible volume for the market — 0.1% of the average daily trading volume in the spot foreign exchange market of 360 billion rubles (according to the Moscow exchange in March). Traders took the Finance Ministry, rather as a positive for the ruble before the Declaration of office at 12:00 GMT the dollar traded at RUB 57,70, and immediately after the announcement — 57,62 RUB (down eight cents).
“The negative value of the deviation [of oil and gas revenues in April] mainly due to the fact that the actual volume of export of gas and petroleum products in April was significantly lower than forecast estimates, calculated from the baseline scenario of socio-economic development of Russia”, — said in a press release of the Ministry. Another factor in the rejection was the return in April of the overpayment of previously paid customs payments, and lower exports of petroleum products was not offset by exports of crude oil. “Decreased compared to theoretical estimates of the volume of oil production. In addition, actual exchange rate of the dollar against the ruble in April formed at a lower level compared to the average March value used to estimate,” says the Finance Ministry.
But the Agency expects that with the continuation of current market conditions, the volume of funds allocated for the purchase of foreign currency, “in subsequent periods will be higher.”
Brent crude, which determines the price of Russian oil Urals, is now worth about $50,5 per barrel, compared with the April high at $56,5.
The Ministry of Finance from February forwards to purchase foreign currency oil and gas windfall obtained as a result of higher oil prices than envisaged in the Federal budget ($40 per barrel). The purchase volume has consistently declined. In February, the Agency predicted level of additional income in the amount of 113.1 billion rubles. and bought daily on the domestic currency market of 6.3 billion RUB. In March the Agency has sharply reduced the volume of purchases: up to 70, 5 billion rubles., because of oil exports at a level below the forecast and strengthening of the ruble to the dollar. In April, the purchase of foreign currency was sent 69,9 billion roubles, the daily procurement volume amounted to 3.5 billion rubles.