The growth of the Russian economy in 2017 will amount to 1.1% in 2018 and 1.4%, predicts the Economic and social Commission for Asia and the Pacific. But the real growth may have a negative impact geopolitics, experts say
Experts of the Economic and social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) predicting that Russia’s economy will grow by 1.1% in 2017 and 1.4% in 2018. This is stated in the report “Economic and social survey of Asia and the Pacific, 2017”.
The main reason for the growth will be relatively high oil prices, the authors. At the same time, such “optimistic forecast” may change due to geopolitical tensions, the report said. In addition, the evaluation will be done based on the assumption of greater stability in the exchange rate. The report indicates that the rise in world oil prices has already led to the reduction of macroeconomic instability in Russia and, in particular, resulted in the strengthening of the national currency.
Experts point out that in the medium term the growth potential of the economy may increase due to structural reforms. These reforms should be aimed at promoting competition in the markets, the modernization of production technologies. You also need to address the problem of declining labor force, according to the UN.
The poor economic performance and low level of disposable income in the last few years has undermined the social development of Russia, experts of the Economic and social Commission. The report notes that measures of economic support which were undertaken by the Russian government: the recapitalization of banks, guarantees to state-owned enterprises, social benefits.
Thus, according to the Commission, other countries from the region North and Central Asia (to the authors of the report include Russia), with the exception of Azerbaijan, will demonstrate greater growth. Thus, the ESCAP experts predict economic growth of Uzbekistan in the area of 7,4% (in 2017 and 2018), Turkmenistan — 6.5% and 6.8% respectively.
In late April, Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov also noted that without structural reforms economic growth will run into the “ceiling of potential”. This ceiling Siluanov was estimated at 1.5% per year.
The managing Director of the IMF Christine Lagarde on 18 April said that the Russian economy came out of “the complex crisis” and came to the territory development. The IMF expects growth of economy in the amount of 1.4% in 2017.
Economic and social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) is the regional Commission of the Economic and social Council (ECOSOC). The Commission provides technical assistance to governments, including training and implementing projects aimed at stimulating growth and improving the socio-economic conditions. Members of ESCAP are 53 States, and 9 countries are associate members.