Dmitry Medvedev and Vladimir Putin
Photo: Alexander Astafyev / RIA Novosti
The may decrees of Vladimir Putin made of 76%, reported the government, but the President believes that “the outstanding issues more than what you were able to do.” What is the reason for the contradiction, understood by RBC
4 may the government published an annual report on the implementation of the may decrees of Vladimir Putin, with whom he entered into his third presidential term five years ago. Of the 218 instructions contained in the decrees, made 165 or 76%, is told in materials of the government. But Putin himself, opening a meeting of the state Council and the Commission on monitoring of achievement of target indicators of social and economic development, said that “there are still many problems and unresolved issues more than what you were able to do.” Thus, the President implicitly acknowledged the conflict between an impressive percentage of the execution of his decrees “on paper” and more modest practical results.
A policy approach
Really rated most of the presidential orders in the framework of the may decrees was made in late 2013: it was already “removed from control” 115 orders. And last year the number of orders deemed to be done by eleven. The government was even behind schedule: at the end of April 2017 completed and removed from control 92% of the number of instructions that need to be executed by that date. Expired 15 orders, although in five of these performance reports are already in the Kremlin, it follows from the government.
Quite a large number of orders represented a task to develop plans, programs, policies etc., i.e. paper products with intangible results. But the part assigned by the President tasks involves achieving specific counting of indicators to improve the economy and people’s lives (to increase labour productivity by 1.5 times, to create 25 million highly productive jobs, raise real wages by 40-50%, etc.). These tasks typically remember, when talking about the may decrees until the “are performed”. Many of them will be impossible or extremely difficult to perform in time, should the current dynamics of the indicators and estimates of the respondents RBC experts.
“Around the world in the strategic documents set to specific values. But in many programs they are indicative, that is, are more of a guideline. We have it fairly prescriptive indicators”, — says the rector of the HSE, Andrey Zhulin.
The goal on the verge of fantasy
The first may by the decree on long-term state economic policy was set five tasks to achieve certain economic indicators to 2018-2020, and none of them probably will fail. Investments in fixed capital were ordered to grow to 25% of GDP by 2015 and to 27% of GDP by 2018. But in 2015, the figure was only 19.6 percent of GDP in 2016 and 20.4%, according to the Rosstat figures calculated under the new methodology of the SNA 2008. It is the methodology of Rosstat officially used for purposes of monitoring the implementation of the may decree. Even in the target scenario of economic development, involving the growth of investment activity, the share of investment in GDP grows to the end of 2018, only 0.7 percentage points compared with the year 2016.
Joint meeting of the State Council and the Commission on monitoring of achievement of target indicators socially-economic development of the country
Photo: Mikhail Klimentyev / TASS
Money for potential investments in the country, but the problem “is the big gap between savings and investment,” said the Director of the research Center of international trade Ranhigs Alexander Knobel. “The transformation of savings into investments will start only when we have reduced macroeconomic risks,” he points out. If this happens, the authorities will have a chance to reduce the gap from the target by 2018, he said.
Looks unattainable goal to increase productivity in the country by 50% by 2018 relative to 2011. According to Rosstat, from 2012 to 2015, the labor productivity in Russia has increased only 4%, the data for 2016 yet. According to the Ministry, in 2016, the figure rose to a symbolic 0.1 percent. In order to reach the goal of the may decree, the performance should grow by 20% annually in the time remaining, estimated by RBC. In Russian history this indicator is so not grown since the transition to the conveyor manufacturing in the era of Soviet industrialization, recalls the Director of the Institute for social analysis and forecasting Ranhigs Tatiana Maleva. This can lead only to the widespread introduction of robots, but in the real situation, the productivity growth of even 1-2% can be considered a success, she said. According to her, a growth of 50% in seven years was originally “level of fiction”.
Substitution of concepts
In the same decree the President set the task of creating 25 million “highly productive jobs” by 2020. Unlike other targets of the concept of “high performance workplaces” in Russian statistics did not exist, and had to invent. Putin himself explained, which means this “highly modern” position, but when Rosstat in 2013, has developed a method of calculation of this index, it became clear that he did not directly affiliated with any advanced technology, nor with the qualifications of the employee or with the actual performance. The basis was taken as the only criterion — the average salary in the company. If it exceeds a certain threshold value set by Rosstat taking into account industry, size of enterprise and region, all employees of such an organization are automatically enrolled in the “high performance”. In other words, Rosstat said it is not the number of productive jobs, and the number of jobs in enterprises, which are related to high performance on the criterion of the average wage.
“Methodology of Rosstat is completely inadequate, especially in terms of the differentiation of salaries that prevailed in our country,” says RBC head of the laboratory of labor resources forecasting, Institute of economic forecasting Russian Academy of Sciences Andrey Korovkin. The level of wages in General not correlated with performance. High-performance workplaces need to work on productivity growth, but this growth is observed in Russia. “This fact poses a methodological bias, which discreditied the entire task of creating high performance in the economy,” — said Korovkin.
The modern workplace is highly skilled professionals who have the skills to work with modern technologies (e.g., 3D modeling), use of large databases (Big Data), carry out the design with the help of special programs and work with modern equipment; the methodology of Rosstat is not taken into account, says the doctor of economic Sciences, associate Professor Plekhanov Russian University of Economics Lilia Babynin. High-performance workplace, which demonstrates the growth of production of goods or provision of services to the base period, she said.
In 2013, Rosstat counted in the country of 17.5 million high-performance workplaces, and then it turned out that the President’s order will fail if this base will add 7.5 million, not 25 million But in 2015 the unemployment rate fell to 8% last year and by another 5%, follows from the calculations of Rosstat, and is now about 16 million Is primarily due to the drop in the level of wages, said Korovkin. Now we can say that to achieve designated targets within a period of not succeed, he believes.
What the government said and what is concealed
Another indicator, which will not be achieved, the increase in real wages in the country, 1.4–1.5 times by 2018. After a fall of 9% in 2015 and recover only 0.7% last year will require an incredible growth of 15% in the two years that the goal was achieved.
The government in its report did not mention these indicators, the achievement of which is no longer possible; not mentioned them at the meeting of the state Council (except for the Chairman “Fair Russia” Sergei Mironov, who drew attention to the fact that the order of growth of real wages is not executed, and the decrees on increasing the salaries of state employees shall be executed only if doctors and teachers work for 2-2,5 rates). But the government in the report on the execution of the decree on long-term economic policy elaborated on the successes of the “war economy”: the development of the defence industry is ahead of the equivalent figures for the economy as a whole and the productivity growth in the defense concerns averages of 8.8%, reaching up to 28-29% in the concern “Almaz—Antey” and the Corporation “Tactical missiles”.
One of the ideas of the may decrees was the fact that the military industrial complex should become a locomotive of the whole economy, explains senior researcher at Ranepa Vitaly Tsymbal. But if the growth of the military economy is noticeable, the growth of the civilian economy through technology and scientific achievements of the war economy is very, very bad. Now the technology developed in such countries as the United States, by order of the ministries of defense and other military departments, become the intellectual property of the developer, and they can use them in the civilian sectors of the economy, says Tsymbal. And in Russia such technologies are classified, so their implementation in the civil sector of the economy is slow.
Two of the 11 may decrees devoted to the development of the Armed forces and the defence industry and improving military service of the 27 orders these orders have been completed 20. “After the decrees of the housing situation servicemen and pensions has improved, but not critical”, — said the coordinator of the public initiative “Citizen and army”, a member of the presidential Council on human rights Sergey Krivenko. According to him, there are still problems with the housing of those who stood in line before the adoption of the decrees. Krivenko also fixes a problem when calculating pensions.
The implementation of the decree relating to defence procurement, the head of the military forecasting Center Anatoly Tsyganok evaluates positively: “the state defence order is executed almost completely.” Head of the Department of industrial Economics, Plekhanov Russian University of Economics Andrey Bystrov agree, “but often the industry makes equipment which is obsolete, but enters into service, that is, the industry uses the technological foundations that were under the Soviet Union.”
One of the orders of the decrees concerns the creation of Arctic forces and development of the Navy in this region. According to Gypsy, the construction of military bases there started over the last four years, “now these three bases must be approximately seven”. “Historically, the development of this group of troops has been associated with the development of projects on development of natural resources in the region,” recalls the source of RBC, close to the leadership of the military. But now, these projects cannot evolve because of falling energy prices and lack of access to Russia of Western technology for their production. The interlocutor of RBC stresses that the activity in the Arctic today is more provocative and might lead to an arms race with other Arctic countries, including the United States and Canada.
In the report the government had no place and the rise in average public sector wages: in 2012, the President instructed to increase the income of doctors, University teachers and researchers up to 200% from the average in the regions by 2018, teachers, educators, cultural workers, social workers — up to 100%.
In 2012, the government approved the tentative schedule of wage growth, these categories of workers until 2018. By 2017 it fit (based on data from Rosstat) the salaries of teachers, researchers, University teachers and workers of culture, and salaries of doctors, nurses and nurses — no. However, schedule 2012 ceased to be relevant. First, in 2015, Rosstat was replaced with the average regional salary, which you want to compare the salaries of teachers and doctors, “the average monthly income from work”, including work in the informal sector. Due to this, the number in the denominator decreased by 3-4 thousand rubles., and the ratio of salaries, respectively, grew. Then, in mid-2016, following the meeting with Deputy Prime Minister Olga Golodets, it was decided to lower the intermediate goals for the salaries of doctors: up to 180% by 2017, according to the doctors (instead of 200%) and up to 80-90% for Junior/middle staff (instead of 100%).
According to Rosstat, the average salary of Russian doctors in 2016 year exceeded 50 thousand. But the money earn is only 5.7% of doctors in the country, and half paid less than 20 thousand, working on one bid, estimated the Fund “Health” based on their own survey. Doctors have to work on a half–two rates for income, explains the Director of the Foundation “Health” Eduard Gavrilov. “However, we understand that dealing with a serious overload increases the risk of medical errors,” he says.
But there is good news
The government reported a decrease in mortality from various causes, and according to some indicators, they even managed to exceed the expectations of the President. For example, Putin instructed by 2018, reduce the mortality from diseases of the circulatory system to 640,4 cases per 100 thousand population. By 2016 this figure amounted to 614,1 per 100 thousand people. Similar situation with TB, now the indicator on mortality from the disease is lower than expected to receive the President in 2018.
Mortality for specific diseases is falling, but meanwhile, the growing rate of deaths “from other diseases,” says Gavrilov. “We can assume that the indicator regions “improve” the statistics on deaths from most common diseases”, he muses. Gavrilov drew attention to a survey of health workers conducted in April 2017 professional social network “Doctors of the Russian Federation”. 34% of doctors on the question “are there, in your opinion, in your institution manipulation of the diagnoses to improve the statistics on post-mortem diagnoses?” answered “Yes, always”. Another 40% of health care workers believe that the statistics are trying to improve, but this is not a standard situation. And 26% of physicians “never noticed anything.” Over the past year, the life expectancy of Russians increased by six months, reaching 72 years of age, mortality decreased in all age groups, from all major causes, and it occurred despite the unfavourable changes in the age structure of the population, said RBC press service of the Ministry of health.
Public services are better
At a meeting in the Kremlin on may 4, talked a lot about the successes in the delivery of public services, including through IFC. “Overall, the country has three thousand MPC, which provide virtually the entire spectrum of public services. Last year the number of applications exceeded 60 million,” — said Putin.
The satisfaction of citizens in obtaining public services definitely one of the most high, confirmed the head of the Executive Committee of the popular front Alexey Anisimov, but onf captures cases where to wait in line for 30 to 40 minutes, and in some IFC in a number of regions represented less than half of the 33 mandatory services. The experts of the popular front pointed to signs of “markups” good ratings on the website monitoring the quality of public services “Your control”: according to Anisimova, thousands of positive reviews were left with an interval of one to two minutes and with the same expressions.
According to the website “Your control” on may 4, the quality of public services is happy 95% of citizens (against a target of 90% by 2018). But for formal monitoring of achievement of targets may, by decree No. 601, uses the results of annual opinion research commissioned by the Ministry of economic development, told RBC assistant Minister Elena Lashkina, and in 2016, the level of satisfaction with quality of public services amounted to 82.9%.
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